Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that divided the nation and triggered disorder, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the political, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or campaigners want to engage with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. They composes two pieces that aim for objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and social statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions range over national emblems, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the concept that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they favour unity but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to reflect unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government should determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will in the end not succeed but each side has got valuable insights to gain from the opposing arguments."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
